Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Tue Nov 10, 8:58 PM Pacific
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory: odds today
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) (On Nov 3, 2026)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| No, ≥4% | 83% |
| No, ≥7% | 8% |
About $141,914 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 83¢ means the market puts it at about 83%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The Sacramento news behind it
- Inmate's death at Folsom prison investigated as homicide1 outlet · Nov 6
- Early returns show Becerra winning California governor race1 outlet · Nov 5
More Sacramento odds
- Kings 2026-27 regular season wins20+ wins 45% · 25+ wins 18%
- California peak gas price this yearAbove $6.60 a gallon 8% · Above $7.00 a gallon 6%
- California home prices up year on year, Q4Index above 419.85 34%
- California permitted housing units in 2026Above 110,000 units 56% · Above 115,000 units 18%
- California ballot measures passingProp 4 passes 26%
- California governor margin of victoryDemocrat by 31+ pts 31% · Democrat by 30+ pts 85%
- California starts laying high-speed rail trackBefore Jan 1, 2027 55%
- California 7.0+ earthquake in 2026Yes 11%