Monday, November 9, 2026

ACTA DIURNA

Chicago

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Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Mon Nov 9, 12:13 PM Central

Illinois 4th District winning margin: odds today

Illinois's 4th District margin of victory

OutcomeChance
Garcia by 51+ points70%
Garcia by 48+ points18%

About $23,944 traded.

What the numbers mean

On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 70¢ means the market puts it at about 70%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.

See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.

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