Sunday, November 8, 2026

ACTA DIURNA

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Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sun Nov 8, 5:18 AM Central

Illinois's 4th District margin of victory: odds today

Illinois's 4th District margin of victory (Illinois's 4th District)

OutcomeChance
Garcia, 36+ pts96%
Garcia, 27+ pts95%
Garcia, 30+ pts95%
Garcia, 33+ pts94%
Garcia, 45+ pts91%
Garcia, 51+ pts70%

About $23,944 traded.

What the numbers mean

On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 96¢ means the market puts it at about 96%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.

See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.

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