Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Thu Nov 12, 8:07 PM Pacific
Prop 40 wealth tax margin: odds today
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fails by 4+ points | 76% |
| Fails by 7+ points | 2% |
Fails by 4+ points: -1 points over 24 hours. About $164,509 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 76¢ means the market puts it at about 76%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The Inland Empire news behind it
More Inland Empire odds
- Big Bear Mountain opening dateOpens by Nov 22 67% · Opens by Nov 15 11%
- Coachella 2027 headlinersMadonna headlines 36% · Rosalía headlines 10%
- Counties Hilton wins for governorRiverside County 7% · San Bernardino County 1%
- California ballot measures passingProp 4 passes 21%
- California home prices, Q4 2026Above 419.85 index 34%
- California housing permits in 2026Above 110,000 units 56% · Above 115,000 units 18%
- California high-speed rail track layingStarts by end of 2026 55%
- Newsom 2028 presidential runAnnounces by Mar 1 58% · Announces by Feb 1 30%
All Inland Empire prediction markets · Inland Empire news today