Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sun Nov 8, 2:49 PM Pacific
California Prop 40 wealth tax vote: odds today
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| No wins by 4+ points | 67% |
| No wins by 7+ points | 25% |
No wins by 4+ points: -4 points over 24 hours. About $115,289 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 67¢ means the market puts it at about 67%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The Los Angeles news behind it
- Barri Worth Girvan declares victory in District 3 council race1 outlet · Nov 6
- Californians reject Prop 39 voter ID requirement, NBC News projects1 outlet · Nov 6
- Council members pledge to move LA forward after Raman's win1 outlet · Nov 6
More Los Angeles odds
- Los Angeles mayoral election marginRaman wins by 8-10% 57% · Raman wins by 10-12% 38%
- Los Angeles mayoral election turnoutAbove 1.15M voters 90% · Above 1.3M voters 16%
- Los Angeles rainfall in NovemberAbove 1 inch 78% · Above 2 inches 42%
- Lakers vs PistonsLakers win 30% · Pistons win 70%
- Peak California gas price this yearAbove $6.60 a gallon 20% · Above $6.80 a gallon 10%
- California housing permits in 2026Above 110,000 units 56% · Above 115,000 units 18%
- California starts laying high-speed rail trackBefore Jan 1, 2027 55%
- Disney domestic parks attendance growthGrowth above 1% 68% · Growth above 2% 40%