Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Tue Nov 10, 3:00 PM Pacific
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory: odds today
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) (On Nov 3, 2026)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| No, ≥4% | 80% |
| No, ≥7% | 8% |
About $138,865 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 80¢ means the market puts it at about 80%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The Los Angeles news behind it
- California voters reject Prop 40 billionaire tax, NBC projects1 outlet · Nov 9
- NWS forecasts 20-40% chance of heavy rain Nov. 11-171 outlet · Nov 6
- Council members pledge to move LA forward after Raman's win1 outlet · Nov 6
More Los Angeles odds
- Los Angeles mayoral margin of victoryRaman wins by 8-10% 76% · Raman wins by 10-12% 18%
- Los Angeles mayoral election turnoutAbove 1.2M voters 23% · Above 1.15M voters 90%
- Becerra vote share in LA CountyAt least 70% 50% · At least 72% 33%
- Los Angeles rainfall in NovemberAbove 2 inches 57% · Above 3 inches 25%
- Rams vs Cardinals on Nov 15Rams win 80% · Cardinals win 22%
- California peak gas price this yearAbove $6.80 a gallon 8% · Above $6.60 a gallon 8%
- California housing permits in 2026Above 110,000 units 56% · Above 115,000 units 18%
- California home prices, Q4 year over yearPrices rise 34%