Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sun Nov 8, 3:32 AM Pacific
Which ballot measures will pass in California: odds today
Which ballot measures will pass in California? (In 2026)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Proposition 5 | 96% |
| Proposition 4 | 8% |
About $49,585 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 96¢ means the market puts it at about 96%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Francisco news behind it
- California voters decide governor, two House seats and 14 measures1 outlet · Nov 3
- Three city charter amendments pass in San Francisco1 outlet · Nov 7
- California billionaire tax Prop. 40 trails in early results2 outlets · Nov 4
- Mayor Daniel Lurie's ballot measures lead in early results1 outlet · Nov 3
More San Francisco odds
- SF ballot measuresProp I passes 24%
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- Anthropic IPO dateBy Nov 20 49% · By Nov 25 73%
- CA gas price peak this yearAbove $6.60 a gallon 20% · Above $6.80 a gallon 10%
- Waymo announces 1M rides a weekBefore 2027 42%
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