San Francisco prediction markets
Odds as of Sun Nov 8, 2:42 AM Pacific, busiest markets first. Prices reflect what traders are betting, not our view.
- SF ballot measuresProp I passes 24% · Kalshi
- SF metro median home value, Dec 31Under $1.062M 71% · $1.062M to $1.083M 22% · Polymarket
- 49ers vs Raiders49ers win 80% · Kalshi
- SF rainfall in NovemberAbove 3 inches 37% · Above 2 inches 62% · Kalshi
- CA billionaire tax marginFails by 4+ points 74% · Fails by 7+ points 26% · Kalshi
- Anthropic IPO dateBy Nov 20 49% · By Nov 25 71% · Polymarket
- CA gas price peak this yearAbove $6.60 a gallon 20% · Above $6.80 a gallon 10% · Kalshi
- Waymo announces 1M rides a weekBefore 2027 42% · Kalshi
- OpenAI IPO dateBy Mar 31, 2027 20% · By Jun 30, 2027 46% · Polymarket
- Magnitude 8 California quakeBefore 2035 20% · Kalshi
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18Before April 2027 84% · Before March 2027 12% · Kalshi
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPOBefore Apr 1, 2027 94% · Before Mar 1, 2027 92% · Kalshi
- When will OpenAI achieve AGIBefore 2030 67% · Before 2028 57% · Kalshi
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge: Corporate announcementBefore 2028 74% · Before May 1, 2027 57% · Kalshi
- When will Anthropic release MythosBefore Jan 1, 2027 6% · Kalshi
- Where will Waymo operate in 2026Denver, CO 74% · Las Vegas, NV 64% · Kalshi
- OpenAI or Anthropic IPO firstAnthropic 93% · OpenAI 6% · Kalshi
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPOBefore Jun 1, 2027 48% · Before May 1, 2027 33% · Kalshi
- When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+Before Dec 31, 2026 92% · Before Nov 13, 2026 39% · Kalshi
- CA-04 HouseEric Jones 88% · Mike Thompson 7% · Kalshi
- How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026Above 0 86% · Above 1000 18% · Kalshi
- What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announceClip-on device for clothing 8% · Earbuds/Headphones 8% · Kalshi
- California Governor margin of victoryDemocrats, 21+ pts 96% · Democrats, 29+ pts 94% · Kalshi
- Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPOGoldman Sachs 94% · Kalshi
- How much will Tesla deliveries grow this yearAbove 500000 in a single quarter 56% · Kalshi
- Tesla Roadster deliveryBefore 2029 48% · Before July, 2028 34% · Kalshi
- California permitted housing units in 2026Above 105,000 90% · Above 110,000 56% · Kalshi
- When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent: Product feature rolloutBefore Jan 1, 2027 17% · Before Dec 1, 2026 9% · Kalshi
- How many House seats will Democrats win in California48 94% · 50 and above 10% · Kalshi
- California Governor General Election: voter turnoutAbove 11.5M 96% · Above 10.5M 92% · Kalshi
- OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solutionBefore Jan 1, 2028 66% · Before Jan 1, 2027 14% · Kalshi
- Tesla total deliveries in 2026Above 1.6 million 95% · Above 1.65 million 88% · Kalshi
- California Governor: which counties will Steve Hilton winSan Joaquin 6% · Fresno 4% · Kalshi
- Courts consider Apple a monopolyBefore 2030 23% · Kalshi
- Any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services in 2In 2026 14% · Kalshi
- Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027Before 2027 8% · Kalshi
- Which ballot measures will pass in CaliforniaProposition 5 96% · Proposition 4 8% · Kalshi
- California Governor election: Steve Hilton vote percentAt least 34% 60% · At least 37% 10% · Kalshi
- California Governor election: Xavier Becerra vote percentAt least 64% 95% · At least 66% 22% · Kalshi
- How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter 59% · Above 20 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter 11% · Kalshi
- Who will announce a California departure in 2026Larry Page 19% · Chamath Palihapitiya 7% · Kalshi
- California home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026Above 419.85 34% · Kalshi
- Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027Above 300,000 95% · Above 350,000 91% · Kalshi
- What sector will OpenAI be assigned toInformation Technology 90% · Unassigned 7% · Kalshi
- California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026Yes 55% · Kalshi
- Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPOGoldman Sachs 64% · Morgan Stanley 27% · Kalshi
- OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screenBefore 2027 9% · Kalshi
- Which banks will take Anthropic publicMizuho 96% · Centerview 13% · Kalshi
- How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026Above 7k 88% · Above 8k 78% · Kalshi
- Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solutionBefore Jan 1, 2027 16% · Kalshi
- CA-24 House election: Bob Smith vote percent: Vote Percent - Bob SmithAt least 24% 95% · At least 32% 84% · Kalshi
- A human land on Mars before California starts high-speed railBefore 2050 30% · Kalshi
- Gavin Newsom announce a presidential runBefore Oct 1, 2027 82% · Before Jul 1, 2027 79% · Kalshi
- When will Anthropic release a personal AI agentBefore Jan 1, 2027 50% · Before Dec 1, 2026 12% · Kalshi
- California Proposition 40 election: Yes vote percentAt least 46% 93% · At least 48% 23% · Kalshi
- Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026Meta 84% · OpenAI 17% · Kalshi
- Tesla total production in 2026Above 1.65 million 92% · Above 1.75 million 89% · Kalshi
- Any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027Before 2027 6% · Kalshi
- CA-49 House winner (2028)Democratic party 90% · Republican party 4% · Kalshi
- Which banks will take OpenAI publicStifel Financial 40% · Raymond James 38% · Kalshi
- Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this yearIn 2026 5% · Kalshi
- How much will the Tesla Roadster costAt least $150,000 95% · At least $200,000 92% · Kalshi
- When will Anthropic release Claude 6Before Dec 31, 2027 90% · Before Sep 30, 2027 82% · Kalshi
- Number of data centers in California this yearAt least 305 70% · At least 315 45% · Kalshi
- OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028Before 2028 56% · Kalshi
- Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letterYes 6% · Kalshi
- When will OpenAI release GPT-7Before 2028 82% · Before September, 2027 52% · Kalshi
- Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPOWill Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? 11% · Kalshi
- When will Waymo officially announce an IPOBefore Jan 1, 2028 24% · Before Dec 1, 2027 24% · Kalshi
- Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chainBefore Jan 1, 2028 55% · Before Jul 1, 2027 40% · Kalshi