Thursday, November 12, 2026

ACTA DIURNA

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Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Thu Nov 12, 10:49 PM Eastern

Fetterman leaves Democratic party: odds today

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

OutcomeChance
By Jan 1, 202820%
By Aug 1, 202714%

By Jan 1, 2028: +2 points over 24 hours. About $62,871 traded.

What the numbers mean

On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 20¢ means the market puts it at about 20%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.

See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.

The Philadelphia news behind it

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