Sunday, November 8, 2026

ACTA DIURNA

Phoenix

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Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM Mountain (Arizona)

Arizona's 1st District margin of victory: odds today

Arizona's 1st District margin of victory (Arizona's 1st District)

OutcomeChance
Shah, 14+ pts8%
Shah, 17+ pts5%
Shah, 11+ pts5%

About $40,802 traded.

What the numbers mean

On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 8¢ means the market puts it at about 8%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.

See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.

The Phoenix news behind it

More Phoenix odds