Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Mon Nov 9, 8:10 PM Pacific
Magnitude 8.0 quake in California: odds today
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Before 2035 | 21% |
Before 2035: no change over 24 hours. About $32,034 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 21¢ means the market puts it at about 21%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
More San Diego odds
- Highest sea level in San Diego this winter8.30 ft or more 48% · 8.10 ft or more 70%
- Utah St. at San Diego St., Nov 14San Diego St. wins 44% · Utah St. wins 55%
- Peak California gas price in 2026Above $6.60 a gallon 14% · Above $6.80 a gallon 10%
- California home prices, Q4 2026Index above 419.85 34%
- California housing permits in 2026Over 110,000 units 56% · Over 115,000 units 18%
- California Prop 40 wealth tax marginNo wins by 4+ points 68% · No wins by 7+ points 8%
- California high-speed rail track layingStarts by end of 2026 56%
- California governor margin of victoryDemocrat wins by 31+ 31%