Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Mon Nov 9, 9:35 PM Pacific
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory: odds today
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) (On Nov 3, 2026)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| No, ≥4% | 68% |
| No, ≥7% | 9% |
About $131,765 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 68¢ means the market puts it at about 68%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Jose news behind it
- California voters reject Proposition 40 wealth tax2 outlets · Nov 9
- Proposition 43 trails in early California returns1 outlet · Nov 8
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