Austin prediction markets
Odds as of Sun Nov 8, 10:21 PM Central, busiest markets first. Prices reflect what traders are betting, not our view.
- Austin metro median home value, Dec 31Below $397K 88% · $407K to $417K 8% · Polymarket
- Austin rainfall in NovemberAbove 3 inches 68% · Above 4 inches 40% · Kalshi
- Texas data center moratoriumBy Jun 30, 2027 18% · By Dec 31, 2027 22% · Polymarket
- Peak Texas gas price in 2026Above $4.20 a gallon 10% · Above $4.40 a gallon 6% · Kalshi
- Texas enacts a state income taxBefore 2030 22% · Before 2028 8% · Kalshi
- Texas winner in 2028 presidential raceRepublican wins 60% · Democrat wins 38% · Kalshi
- Tesla and SpaceX merger announcedBefore May 1, 2027 57% · Before Jan 1, 2027 11% · Kalshi
- Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026450k to 475k 24% · 475k to 500k 19% · Polymarket
- Texas vs LSU, Nov 14LSU wins 60% · Texas wins 39% · Kalshi
- Texas Senate margin of victoryJames Talarico, 12+ pts 93% · James Talarico, 12.2+ pts 80% · Kalshi
- Texas Governor margin of victoryHinojosa, 7+ pts 95% · Kalshi
- Texas crude oil production in 2026Above 5.8 million barrels/day 8% · Kalshi
- Texas Senate General Election: voter turnoutAbove 10.15M 10% · Above 10.00M 6% · Kalshi
- How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026Above 0 86% · Above 1000 18% · Kalshi
- Choosin' Texas weeks at #1: 2026At least 29 weeks 90% · At least 30 weeks 58% · Kalshi
- How much will Tesla deliveries grow this yearAbove 500000 in a single quarter 55% · Kalshi
- Tesla Roadster deliveryBefore 2029 48% · Before July, 2028 34% · Kalshi
- Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas marginTalarico by 0-5 94% · Kalshi
- Tesla total deliveries in 2026Above 1.6 million 95% · Above 1.65 million 90% · Kalshi
- Texas Senate election: James Talarico vote percentAt least 58% 13% · Kalshi
- Any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services in 2In 2026 14% · Kalshi
- TX-23 House election: Brandon Herrera vote percentAt least 44% 95% · Kalshi
- Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percentAt least 44% 7% · Kalshi
- Texas Governor election: Gina Hinojosa vote percentAt least 46% 95% · At least 50% 86% · Kalshi
- Texas Governor election: Greg Abbott vote percentAt least 46% 6% · Kalshi
- How many Texas counties will James Talarico win in 2026At least 42 5% · Kalshi
- How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter 59% · Above 20 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter 10% · Kalshi
- Texas Senate election: Ted Brown vote percent: Vote Percent - Ted BrownAt least 2% 6% · Kalshi
- Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027Above 300,000 95% · Above 350,000 90% · Kalshi
- Webb County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 67% 96% · At least 56% 89% · Kalshi
- Texas's 23rd District margin of victoryStout, 1+ pts 86% · Stout, 13+ pts 52% · Kalshi
- Bexar County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 58% 96% · At least 66% 75% · Kalshi
- TX-15 House election: Monica De La Cruz vote percentAt least 44% 18% · At least 40% 15% · Kalshi
- Starr County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 66% 62% · At least 64% 30% · Kalshi
- Harris County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 62% 96% · At least 64% 96% · Kalshi
- Texas gas prices tomorrowAbove 3.4700 87% · Above 3.4950 9% · Kalshi
- Tesla total production in 2026Above 1.65 million 92% · Above 1.7 million 88% · Kalshi
- Tarrant County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 55% 93% · At least 53% 49% · Kalshi
- Dallas County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 70% 75% · At least 78% 12% · Kalshi
- Hidalgo County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 68% 96% · At least 54% 84% · Kalshi
- TX-30 House election: Everett Jackson vote percentAt least 16% 94% · At least 18% 85% · Kalshi
- TX-17 House winner (2028)Republican party 93% · Democratic party 6% · Kalshi
- How much will the Tesla Roadster costAt least $150,000 95% · At least $300,000 94% · Kalshi
- TX-23 House election: Katy Padilla Stout vote percentAt least 40% 95% · At least 52% 81% · Kalshi
- TX-05 House winner (2028)Republican party 90% · Democratic party 9% · Kalshi
- TX-37 House election: Lauren Peña vote percentAt least 12% 89% · At least 14% 80% · Kalshi
- TX-38 House election: Melissa McDonough vote percentAt least 46% 20% · At least 48% 11% · Kalshi
- TX-30 House election: Frederick Haynes vote percentAt least 72% 90% · At least 74% 72% · Kalshi
- Texas's 5th District margin of victoryGooden, 5+ pts 6% · Kalshi
- Travis County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 72% 94% · At least 80% 13% · Kalshi
- TX-06 House winner (2028)Republican party 92% · Democratic party 8% · Kalshi
- Texas's 32nd District margin of victoryYarbrough, 15+ pts 11% · Kalshi
- TX-10 House winner (2028)Republican party 90% · Democratic party 9% · Kalshi
- Collin County, Texas: James Talarico vote percentAt least 51% 90% · At least 46% 84% · Kalshi
- TX-03 House winner (2028)Republican party 90% · Democratic party 8% · Kalshi
- Texas's 25th District margin of victoryWilliams, 6+ pts 96% · Williams, 24+ pts 24% · Kalshi
- Texas's 34th District margin of victoryGonzalez, 1+ pts 96% · Gonzalez, 7+ pts 95% · Kalshi
- Tesla energy deployment in Q4Above 10 GWh 90% · Above 12 GWh 86% · Kalshi
- Texas's 35th District margin of victoryGarcia, 11+ pts 12% · Garcia, 14+ pts 7% · Kalshi
- Tesla production in Q1 2027Above 400,000 84% · Above 425,000 66% · Kalshi
- TX-28 House election: Henry Cuellar vote percentAt least 56% 94% · At least 48% 85% · Kalshi
- Choosin’ Texas weeks at #1: NovemberAt least 3 weeks 75% · At least 4 weeks 61% · Kalshi
- TX-27 House election: Michael Cloud vote percentAt least 50% 91% · At least 52% 72% · Kalshi
- TX-26 House election: Brandon Gill vote percentAt least 56% 91% · At least 54% 77% · Kalshi
- NC-08 House election: Colby Watson vote percentAt least 38% 84% · At least 42% 65% · Kalshi
- Austin Powers 4: Release DateBefore 2030 79% · Before July 2029 71% · Kalshi
- CT-02 House election: George Austin vote percentAt least 42% 6% · Kalshi