Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Wed Nov 11, 5:16 AM Pacific
CA billionaire tax (Prop 40) margin: odds today
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fails by 4+ points | 82% |
| Fails by 7+ points | 8% |
Fails by 4+ points: +30 points over 24 hours. About $142,020 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 82¢ means the market puts it at about 82%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Francisco news behind it
- NBC News projects California voters reject Prop 40 billionaire tax1 outlet · Nov 9
- California billionaire tax trails and Prop 42 leads in early returns1 outlet · Nov 4
- KQED compares San Francisco and statewide Proposition 40 returns2 outlets · Nov 4
- California billionaire tax Prop. 40 trails in early results2 outlets · Nov 4
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