Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Wed Nov 11, 5:16 AM Pacific
Newsom announces a presidential run: odds today
Will Gavin Newsom announce a presidential run?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| By Mar 1, 2027 | 54% |
| By Feb 1, 2027 | 24% |
By Mar 1, 2027: no change over 24 hours. About $17,402 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 54¢ means the market puts it at about 54%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Francisco news behind it
- Newsom commutes California death sentences2 outlets · Nov 9
- Newsom commutes California death sentences; victims' families divided1 outlet · Nov 9
- Newsom says he will commute all California death sentences3 outlets · Nov 8
- Xavier Becerra wins California governor race over Steve Hilton1 outlet · Nov 4
More San Francisco odds
- SF metro median home value, Dec 31Under $1.062M 64% · $1.062M to $1.083M 19%
- SF rainfall in NovemberAbove 4 inches 52%
- 49ers vs Cowboys, Nov 1549ers win 66%
- CA billionaire tax (Prop 40) marginFails by 4+ points 82% · Fails by 7+ points 8%
- CA home prices rise year on year in Q4Prices up YoY 34%
- Anthropic IPO closing market cap$1.25T to $1.5T 34% · $1.5T to $1.75T 29%
- OpenAI goes publicBy Jun 30, 2027 46% · By Mar 31, 2027 20%
- Waymo announces 1M paid rides a weekBefore 2027 39%
All San Francisco prediction markets · San Francisco news today