Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Wed Nov 11, 1:48 AM Pacific
M8.0+ California earthquake: odds today
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Before 2035 | 19% |
Before 2035: -1 points over 24 hours. About $32,034 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 19¢ means the market puts it at about 19%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
More San Francisco odds
- SF November rainfallAbove 4 inches 35% · Above 3 inches 69%
- 49ers vs Cowboys, Nov 1549ers win 66%
- CA billionaire tax marginFails by 4+ points 85% · Fails by 7+ points 6%
- Anthropic IPO closing market cap$1.25T to $1.5T 34% · $1.5T to $1.75T 28%
- CA home prices rise year over yearRise in Q4 2026 34%
- CA housing permits in 2026Above 110,000 56% · Above 115,000 18%
- Waymo reaches 1M paid rides a weekBy end of 2026 39%
- OpenAI IPO timingBy Jun 30, 2027 46% · By Mar 31, 2027 20%
All San Francisco prediction markets · San Francisco news today