Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Thu Nov 12, 4:55 PM Pacific
Magnitude 8.0+ quake in California: odds today
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Before 2035 | 18% |
Before 2035: no change over 24 hours. About $32,039 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 18¢ means the market puts it at about 18%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Francisco news behind it
More San Francisco odds
- SF rainfall in NovemberOver 4 inches 40% · Over 3 inches 66%
- 49ers vs Cowboys, Nov 1549ers win 66%
- CA billionaire tax (Prop 40) marginFails by 4+ points 72%
- Anthropic IPO closing market cap$1.25T to $1.5T 38% · $1.5T to $1.75T 25%
- OpenAI IPO timingBy Mar 31, 2027 22% · By Jun 30, 2027 46%
- Waymo reaches 1M paid rides a weekBefore 2027 37%
- Next Nvidia CEOIan Buck 32% · Colette Kress 14%
- CA home prices rise year over yearUp YoY in Q4 2026 34%
All San Francisco prediction markets · San Francisco news today