Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sat Nov 14, 8:43 AM Pacific
Magnitude 8+ quake in California: odds today
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Before 2035 | 18% |
Before 2035: -1 points over 24 hours. About $32,040 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 18¢ means the market puts it at about 18%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Francisco news behind it
More San Francisco odds
- November rainfall in SFOver 5 inches 60% · Over 4 inches 73%
- 49ers vs Cowboys49ers win 66%
- Palo Alto home values in NovemberAbove $3.86M 89%
- CA billionaire tax marginFails by 4+ points 91%
- Anthropic IPO closing market cap$1.25T to $1.5T 44% · Under $1.25T 26%
- OpenAI IPO timingBy Jun 30, 2027 46% · By Mar 31, 2027 22%
- Waymo reaches 1M paid rides a weekBefore 2027 36%
- Next NVIDIA CEORene Haas 24% · Ian Buck 18%
All San Francisco prediction markets · San Francisco news today