Sunday, November 8, 2026

ACTA DIURNA

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Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM Mountain (Arizona)

Arizona's 5th District margin of victory: odds today

Arizona's 5th District margin of victory (Arizona's 5th District)

OutcomeChance
Lamb, 2+ pts63%
Lamb, 5+ pts17%
Lamb, 8+ pts7%

About $15,138 traded.

What the numbers mean

On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 63¢ means the market puts it at about 63%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.

See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.

The Phoenix news behind it

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