Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Thu Nov 12, 8:33 PM Pacific
California ballot measures passing: odds today
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Proposition 4 passes | 21% |
Proposition 4 passes: +2 points over 24 hours. About $49,689 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 21¢ means the market puts it at about 21%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Diego news behind it
- County sales tax and charter measures lead in vote count5 outlets · Nov 9
- California Proposition 1 is on the verge of passing1 outlet · Nov 6
More San Diego odds
- Highest sea level in San Diego this winter8.10 ft or more 78% · 8.30 ft or more 60%
- Utah State vs. San Diego StateUtah State wins 57% · SDSU wins 42%
- California Prop 40 wealth tax marginFails by 4+ points 76% · Fails by 7+ points 2%
- California governor margin of victoryDemocrat wins by 31+ 31% · Democrat wins by 30+ 86%
- California housing permits in 2026Above 110,000 units 56% · Above 115,000 units 18%
- California home prices, Q4 2026Index above 419.85 34%
- California high-speed rail track laidStarts by Jan 1, 2027 55%
- 8.0+ earthquake in CaliforniaBefore 2035 18%