Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Thu Nov 12, 8:33 PM Pacific
Who announces leaving California: odds today
Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Peter Thiel | 22% |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 6% |
Peter Thiel: +17 points over 24 hours. About $31,926 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 22¢ means the market puts it at about 22%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
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