Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sun Nov 8, 9:03 PM Pacific
California ballot measures that pass: odds today
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Proposition 4 passes | 58% |
| Proposition 42 passes | 89% |
Proposition 4 passes: -26 points over 24 hours. About $64,356 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 58¢ means the market puts it at about 58%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
The San Jose news behind it
More San Jose odds
- San Jose drops below 40°F in DecemberBelow 40°F 86%
- Sharks season points total85+ points 59% · 90+ points 30%
- Peak California gas price this yearAbove $6.60 a gallon 21% · Above $6.80 a gallon 10%
- California housing units permitted in 2026Above 110,000 56% · Above 115,000 18%
- California home prices up year over yearIndex above 419.85 34%
- Prop 40 wealth tax: margin of defeatFails by 4+ points 80% · Fails by 7+ points 15%
- California starts laying high-speed rail trackBefore 2027 55%
- Jensen Huang leaves as Nvidia CEOBefore 2027 14% · Before 2028 40%