Prediction market · Kalshi · updated Sun Nov 8, 9:03 PM Pacific
Prop 40 wealth tax: margin of defeat: odds today
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fails by 4+ points | 80% |
| Fails by 7+ points | 15% |
Fails by 4+ points: +6 points over 24 hours. About $117,246 traded.
What the numbers mean
On Kalshi, traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 80¢ means the market puts it at about 80%. These are bets, not polls and not our forecast. We don't take sides and have no stake in any market. Not financial advice.
See the market on Kalshi, where the rules say exactly how it resolves.
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