New York City prediction markets
Odds as of Sun Nov 8, 6:26 AM Eastern, busiest markets first. Prices reflect what traders are betting, not our view.
- NYC median asking rent, December 2026Above $4,000 50% · Above $4,100 22% · Kalshi
- Subway ridership back to pre-Covid averageReaches 4.19 million 57% · Kalshi
- Congestion-zone vehicle entries in 2026Above 170 million 74% · Above 175 million 19% · Kalshi
- Mamdani raises corporate taxesBefore 2029 44% · Before 2028 26% · Kalshi
- City-owned grocery store opensBefore 2028 74% · Kalshi
- Manhattan office vacancy, Q4 2026Below 18% 55% · Kalshi
- 2029 New York City mayoral electionZohran Mamdani 81% · Jessica Tisch 6% · Kalshi
- New Jersey gas price at year-endAbove $3.90 a gallon 68% · Above $4.20 a gallon 35% · Kalshi
- Next JPMorgan CEO after DimonTroy Rohrbaugh 47% · Doug Petno 33% · Kalshi
- New York governor margin of victoryHochul wins by 19+ 80% · Kalshi
- How many people will attend Broadway shows during the 2026–27 seasonabove 13,750,000 96% · above 13,500,000 96% · Kalshi
- Port of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026Above 8.4 million TEUs 96% · Above 8.6 million TEUs 94% · Kalshi
- NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)Increase 0.01-0.99% 40% · No change or decrease 0–0.99% 36% · Kalshi
- How many billionaires will New York City lose this yearAt least 1 57% · At least 2 48% · Kalshi
- Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045Before Jan 22, 2045 14% · Kalshi
- NY-17 House election: Cait Conley vote percentAt least 50% 94% · At least 54% 23% · Kalshi
- Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027Yes 5% · Kalshi
- Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027Yes 6% · Kalshi
- New York Governor: which counties will Kathy Hochul winNassau 88% · Warren 25% · Kalshi
- New York Governor election: Bruce Blakeman vote percentAt least 38% 95% · At least 34% 95% · Kalshi
- NYC buses become free before 2027In 2026 6% · Kalshi
- Mamdani raise property taxesYes 11% · Kalshi
- A Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leaderBefore Jan 1, 2027 52% · Kalshi
- New York Governor election: Kathy Hochul vote percentAt least 58% 95% · At least 62% 75% · Kalshi
- Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027Yes 5% · Kalshi
- NY-10 House election: Nickie Kane vote percentAt least 2% 23% · At least 7% 5% · Kalshi
- NY-17 House election: Mike Lawler vote percentAt least 44% 84% · At least 46% 69% · Kalshi
- Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York CityBefore Jan 1, 2030 30% · Before Jan 1, 2029 13% · Kalshi
- Brooklyn Beckham: Seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham in 2026Yes 4% · Kalshi
- NY-21 House election: Blake Gendebien vote percentAt least 42% 96% · At least 48% 93% · Kalshi
- NY-01 House election: Jordan Maggio vote percentAt least 2% 8% · At least 6% 5% · Kalshi
- Verizon postpaid phone net additions in Q1 2027Above 450,000 89% · Above 500,000 86% · Kalshi
- Verizon postpaid phone net additions in fiscal 2026Above 700 thousand 95% · Above 750 thousand 94% · Kalshi
- NY-16 House election: John Wilson vote percentAt least 1% 7% · At least 4% 6% · Kalshi
- NY-20 House winner (2028)Democratic party 93% · Republican party 6% · Kalshi
- NY-13 House election: Bob Cohen vote percent: Vote Percent - Bob CohenAt least 1% 11% · At least 4% 11% · Kalshi
- When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery storeBefore Jan 1, 2027 14% · Before Jul 1, 2027 14% · Kalshi
- NY-17 House election: Effie Phillips-Staley vote percentAt least 1% 8% · At least 3% 6% · Kalshi
- NY-21 House election: Robert Smullen vote percentAt least 1% 7% · At least 2% 6% · Kalshi
- NY-12 House election: Karen Ortiz vote percentAt least 1% 25% · At least 5% 17% · Kalshi
- Who will be the next CEO of JPMorgan ChaseTroy Rohrbaugh 43% · Doug Petno 32% · Kalshi
- NY-12 House election: Lucian Wintrich vote percentAt least 3% 8% · At least 5% 5% · Kalshi
- NY-25 House election: Kloud Walton vote percentAt least 2% 7% · At least 3% 7% · Kalshi
- NY-24 House election: Tony Macula vote percentAt least 1% 6% · At least 2% 6% · Kalshi
- NY-24 House winner (2028)Republican party 95% · Democratic party 6% · Kalshi
- New York City have a 3 Michelin Star restaurant in this yearIn 2026 61% · Kalshi
- NY-23 House winner (2028)Republican party 92% · Democratic party 6% · Kalshi
- NY-12 House election: Wilneida Negron vote percentAt least 1% 23% · At least 4% 13% · Kalshi
- NY-07 House election: Claire Valdez vote percentAt least 80% 92% · At least 76% 70% · Kalshi
- New York Governor General Election: voter turnoutAbove 5.5M 91% · Above 5.8M 90% · Kalshi
- Which New York City restaurants earn a Michelin star in 2026Le Chêne 94% · Bungalow 76% · Kalshi
- Which New York City restaurants lose Michelin stars in 2026Jean-Georges 96% · Daniel 84% · Kalshi
- Queens County, New York: Kathy Hochul vote percentAt least 62% 94% · At least 68% 77% · Kalshi
- When will Trump and Mamdani meet: Donald Trump and Zohran MamdaniBefore Mar 1, 2027 50% · Before Jan 1, 2027 27% · Kalshi
- New York City rent increase in 2026: In DecemberAbove 0% 95% · Above 1% 95% · Kalshi
- New York County, New York: Kathy Hochul vote percentAt least 80% 84% · At least 78% 82% · Kalshi
- NY-10 House election: Jennifer Moore vote percentAt least 10% 81% · At least 12% 76% · Kalshi
- Mamdani run for re-electionYes 84% · Kalshi
- Which New York City restaurants move from one Michelin star to two or more in 2026Frevo 96% · Le Coucou 12% · Kalshi
- NYC efficiency savings in FY2027Above $200 million 82% · Above $400 million 75% · Kalshi
- How many 2-K seats will NYC make available for 2027–28Above 4,000 94% · Above 6,000 88% · Kalshi
- When will Mamdani visit the White HouseBefore Mar 1, 2027 38% · Before Jan 1, 2027 18% · Kalshi
- What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026At least 8 mph 90% · At least 8.1 mph 78% · Kalshi
- NY-14 House election: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vote percentAt least 66% 94% · At least 68% 84% · Kalshi
- What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026Above 86,000 91% · Above 88,000 84% · Kalshi
- A court block NYC's horse-carriage ban before 2028Before Jan 1, 2028 20% · Kalshi
- Single adult NYC homeless shelter average stay in FY2027Above 275 days 95% · Above 300 days 90% · Kalshi
- Which New York City restaurants earn three Michelin stars in 2026Aska 85% · Atera 85% · Kalshi